WHAT IF?

What if Biya were not president of Cameroon  in 2012? Not by losing elections but because he chooses not to run for office in 2011. For the first time since 1992 President Biya, although the statutory presidential candidate for CPDM (since he is party leader) is yet to announce his candidacy for October 2011 elections. At first this may look normal till you realize that the usual suspects on the opposition bench are also delaying presidential campaign kick-off. Could they be privy to “hidden” information? Or maybe they want to identify whom they are running against in the CPDM.

What if by modifying constitutional limitation of presidential mandates in 2008, Biya actually pulled the limelight on himself so that he could foist a power transition with a candidate of his choice under the radar?

What if recent political options adopted by Biya are geared at protecting his candidate. Take the case for “Operation Epervier”. The move to fight against corruption by intimidation and public disgrace, overflows with political strategy. The question has never been whether the accused and arrested are guilty or not, but whether they have political ambition. When corruption is erected as a form of control, all those who flirt with the system leave open a flank through which they can be brought down. The kind of corruption that grips Cameroon is not moral but systemic. There exists no means of working in a corrupt regime yet claim not to be corrupt. If we agree, that Mebara, Abah Abah, Siyam Siewe, Etondo Ekotto, Fornjindam, Nguini Effa, Michel Fotso etc may be corrupt to an extent, yet do have vested political ambitions, then we need to examine whether their ambitions threaten Biya. Obviously, Biya is not threatened by them in any way. Even popularity ceased to be a threat for Biya in 1992. The ease with which president Biya rounds these men off to jail is proof. If they don’t threaten Biya, then they threaten someone else. In which case, the political victims of “Operation Epervier” threaten whomever Biya wants to choose as replacement?  Biya may be clearing hurdles for his candidate.

What if Biya’s renewd acquaintance with Fru Ndi is not coincidental? Although they have met six times in as many months, Biya has politically neutralized Fru Ndi. Worse still he makes the SDF Chairman look like a village chief who rules, but has no power. What is the political opportunity of meeting Fru Ndi regularly? Fru Ndi may yet be a thorn to the side of Biya’s candidate. In which case, befriending Fru Ndi also follows the same logic of facilitating the path for someone else.

What if Biya voiced this intention not to be president beyond 2011 to at least one person. If this information leaks (it’s often so in Cameroon) then there is a clear justification for the circus-like “The People’s Call”. For the first time, choosing a CPDM presidential candidate seems to need popular adherence rather internal party regulation. Biya’s problem is “being president”, at all cost. Even with 39% of 4 million registered voters in 1992. Biya has not changed. He will settle for 15% percent of the vote on condition that rival parties have 14% and less. Where does the idea that citizens within and out of the CPDM want Biya to be candidate? “The People’s Call” is evocative of orphaned children looking for a lost parent in a war zone.

What if Biya’s choice is Rene Sadi, Marafa, Laurent Esso, Ahmadou Ali, Cavaye, Ayang Luc, Mebe Ngo etc.? They all meet the criterion that makes me think Mebara, Abah Abah, Siyam Siewe, Etondo Ekotto, Fornjindam, Nguini Effa, Michel Fotso, Ondo Ndong and the rest are potential rivals. Biya could even choose a non-CPDM stalwart, reinforcing the idea why he needs to silence all opposition from within his party.

What if this election were postponed in 2011? With the present state of affairs, it is plausible.