According to Russian forensic experts Yasser Arafat died of natural causes not radiation poisoning.

They are the latest to give an opinion on the former Palestinian leader’s death in 2004.

The Russian announcement is more strategic than scientific. It's obvious that one cannot ascertain after 8 years without reasonable doubt if Arafat was poisoned with polonium or not. Yet, Putin's government cannot afford any extra distraction before Sotchi Games. WHY? Because 85% of rogue Polonium sales are traceable to Russia and 15% to other former Russian Republics.

Francophone Conundrum.

I watched 2 live TV debates on Sunday May 19^th on 2 private TV stations airing from Cameroon: Canal 2 International and Spectrum TV (STV2). On both shows, the topic was national unity and obviously "The Anglophone Problem" crept in. Previously, I found it very difficult to articulate "that problem" satisfactorily. However, I definitely made up my mind after the shows.

Why would the Anglophone Problem come up in a show which focused national unity? Do anglophones threaten national unity? You may debate on the WHY and HOW of the unification and reunification; of who was re-unifying with whom and why; of whether it was a unification or re-unification or even if the event ever took place. Regardless, so long as ONE Cameroonian is labeled "Anglophone" (for whatever reason), you must entertain the possibility that there may be a specific problem which only Anglophones face owing to the history, sociology, ancestry and/or territory. Curiously, on both shows, inasmuch as they both labeled some Cameroonians "Anglophone", the TV stations didn't find it relevant to invite an Anglophone! Surreal as it may seem, this is a reflection of contemporary Cameroon. Suddenly I realized that, maybe the Anglophone Problem is actually a "francophone issue". How do you acknowledge a problem facing some people, yet fail to recognize the people? One reason only; disrespect.

The Anglophone Problem concerns anglophones but it doesn't automatically follow that anglophones have a problem. I don’t think so. “The Anglophone Problem” is the francophone incapacity to distinguish between unification and uniformity. Anglophones didn’t become francophone in 1972 nor do Anglophones  expect francophones to become anglophone any day. We are whom we are.

North Korea has no Nukes!

Recent weeks have played out the strangest display of foolhardiness, blackmail and plain crazy. A supposed nuclear power, North Korea, threatening to blow up the United States and South Korea.

The case for a North Korean nuclear ICBM lacks proof. It goes against all convention. Normally, ICBM capability is "discovered" or communicated, not advertised. Some may argue whether Israel has nuclear capability. Or South Africa or Iran or Pakistan. North Korea is the only country that every advertised its nuclear capability. 

If the past is any indication to go by, North Korean threats of war are overblown. However, the chances that it will conduct another nuclear test are high. And it is gaining ground in its missile program, experts say, though still a long way from seriously threatening the U.S. mainland. "It's not the first time they've made a similar threat of war," said Ryoo Kihl-jae, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. "What's more serious than the probability of an attack on South Korea is that of a nuclear test. I see very slim chances of North Korea following through with its threat of war."

Consider these facts about nuclear weapons. No nuclear power has ever before threatened another nuclear power with a direct attack. 

My Take
In a very revealing interview by Bill Clinton after he left the White House, the former US President explained how the US purchased North Korean military stockpiles and destroyed them for fear of these weapons (including handguns and grenades) getting into the international black-market. This option practiced by Clinton Presidency was driven by the crudeness of the weapons rather than their tactical impact.

The North Korean nuclear program is the best weapon against itself.

1. It permanently drains their meagre ressources 
2. It guarantees that North Korea is dependent on food aid from its designated enemies (South Korea and USA).
3. It maintains hyper inflation, massive poverty and a permanent brain-drain with North Korean scientists defecting to South Korea. 

Will the US intervene.
No! Similar to WWII where British intelligence concluded that assassinating Hitler will be counter-productive because his generals (Heinz Guderian, Wilhelm Keitel, Erwin Rommel and Gerd von Rundstedt) freed from the overburdening yoke of an erratic civilian dictator could effectively win the war between 1939 and 1942; a US intervention will destabilize North Korea and may create a military vacuum that may forge the emergence of a real military threat to South Korea and beyond. It serves US military interests to keep a twenty-something year old (who is yet to make the difference between video games and war) at the helm.

Predictable Outcomes

 I love some, despise some or live in total indifference to others. My opinions are forged from factual analyses and are completely devoid of emotion or belief.

1. The opinions i hold on individuals will not change when they die (if they die before i do). When I despise you, I really do. Take Chavez's case. I have no respect whatsoever, for any regime or Head of State who modifies the constitution that brought him to power and uses the new one to stay in power. If you don't finish your mission during the required term, YOU FAILED! So don't expect my sympathy for Chavez ... death is not a form of power change.
2. I love Coup d'Etats ... on one condition. That the perpetrator of a coup accept that he is in violation of public code of conduct and he has no right to judge anybody else who plans or executes a coup against him.
3. I am suspicious of all regimes when they go beyond a 2nd Term. 
4. Being irrelevant in politics means you have no solutions for the problems you identified. John Fru Ndi, Julius Malema and Paul Biya are first on my list.
5. I condone the death sentence if it's carried out in public. A sanitised execution is a sign of cowardice.
6. I hold no religious views whatsoever. I respect individuals who believe in God (s) but completely despise their beliefs. 
7. I'm completely indifferent to the Hippopotamus because if you kill all of them, nothing will change.

BOKO "HAREM"

Don't apply any logic tested elsewhere on Cameroon. Cameroon is a dysfunctional state. Study these facts closely. If a family is hijacked "using motorbikes", the 1st doubt you want to clear is how 7 ppl get transported on bikes. One bike is fast, many bikes riding in a convoy with children is a bit of a hassle. Next, the source of that info should be arrested. The amount of detail in the info betrays proximity. Normally kidnap victims "disappear" till further notice. They were kidnapped and taken to Nigeria in a zone where borders are neither marked nor secured means the person giving the information either masters map reading, is using a GPS or has a GSM device with Geo-location capabilities. My take? The french family was kidnapped by Cameroonian thugs and sold to bigger thugs who think the name BOKO HARAM makes the fickle-hearted shudder

Known Knowns

There is no unknown
We know only as much as we can prove.

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Hunger and Stupidity

I am against any form of aid for Africa because any continent that receives aid for 50+ years and does not change can do without aid. Even humanitarian aid is of no use.  Yet troubling images from East Africa and Somalia are bound to haunt us. These images weigh on the mind of those who are emotionally inclined to think that Africa may survive only through financial aid. These images serve as justifications for mass emotion. No good ever came from mass emotion. A crowd does not think – individuals do.

The African relief fad serves to distract attention from real issues which are accountable government and democracy. There is famine in parts Chad, Darfur and Kordofan (Sudan), Somalia, parts of Uganda and D.R. Congo, Central African Republic etc. These countries are not victims of fate. These countries are victims of centralized autocratic regimes, idiotic agricultural policies and politically engineered civil strife. The dying child in Darfur or the fly-infested mouth in Somalia is man-made by Africans. Starvation is not a problem; it’s a symptom of bad governance.

Since western donors are inclined to give aid to an extremely poor population by procedure (say 0.2% of GDP); when a potentate in Cameroon, Burkina-Faso, Congo, Mauritania, Uganda DRC, Burundi etc. designs an economy based on foreign financial input, the extremely poor population becomes an asset. If he alleviates poverty, he disqualifies himself from western financial dregs. Overnight, the extremely poor become a tool for survival. Crusading against misery is not a priority in dictatorships. Glaring example; while citizens die of cholera in Bafut (NW Region - Cameroon), CPDM party militants of the same region donate 400 million FCFA for the re-election campaign of a president who is in power since 1983 and may not even be a candidate for the upcoming elections. Read my lips.

Image bias is accompanied by ignorant logic of pop stars (Bono, USA for Africa, Live AID) who’ll say “if we take one day off nuclear spending and put it on food, it will make a huge difference”. I’ll prefer the nuclear spending to go on while we forget not to put a juvenile nuke under Sassou, Bongo, Biya, Compaore, Deby, or Bozize. One bang will be more efficient than a whole US Defense budget worth of canned fish.

There is of course a shortage of food among Africans as there is among Indians, Chinese and Bangladeshi. But that does not mean there is a shortage of food in Africa. Even if you make food available for Somalia, there remains the insurmountable problem of distribution logistics. Such logistics are borne of delivered electoral promises, accountability and representative government. There is no African state which respects the above and faces famine, starvation or both. Vices go together: Cholera in Cameroon, Meningitis in Chad, Famine in Somalia and the endless list goes on while Ghana, South Africa, and Botswana have a groove on.

Drought may be a calamity but consequent death from starvation is the result of bad governance. 

Incompetence of State

Of the potential candidates for Cameroon’s 2011 Presidential elections, one is illegal. Amending Article 6(2) of 1996 Constitution in April 2008 could have put Paul Biya’s presidential hopes in constitutional limbo. The issue was first hinted at by Alain Didier Olinga(1) in April. We have pondered on the issue and talked to constitutional experts with the condition of anonymity and these are their arguments.

1 – Paul Biya was sworn in as president of Cameroon in 1997 under the 18 January 1996 constitution that limited presidential mandates to two. Article 6(2) of 1996 Constitutional amendment expressly states that limitation of presidential mandates is not retroactive. As such, when Paul Biya promulgated the reform into law in January 1996, the provision did not apply to him as he was active president. It could only apply to a president who is sworn into office with this limitation in force. Therefore, as of 1997 when Biya was sworn in again his presidential mandates were limited to two.

Eleven years later in 2008, a move initiated by CPDM dominated parliament culminated in a constitutional amendment that removed limitation of consecutive presidential mandates. Unlike in 1996, the new wording omitted retroactivity. If the new provision is not retroactive, then it cannot be applicable to Paul Biya who is active president since 1997.

2 – CPDM militants claim April 14^th 2008 constitutional amendments did not aim at giving Paul Biya limitless presidential mandates. Constitutionally, they got it right. The wording of the new provision on consecutive presidential mandates does not say the law is retroactive.

3 – According to Article 2 of Cameroon Civil code, the law is not retroactive except in situations where the law itself invokes retroactivity.

Biya’s Options.

With the parliamentary obesity that CPDM enjoys in National Assembly, the majority party may yet do another modification aimed at completing April 2008 reform by making the provision of limitless presidential mandates retroactive. The National Assemble may yet present an interpretative law, to clarify its intention when the law was revised in April 2008.

Now “the People’s Call” becomes very interesting. Is it a call for a popular revolt? We throw the question to your appreciation; can president Biya alter the nature of his second presidential mandate while it is still running?

(1)  Alain Didier Olinga was dismissed from the post of Deputy Director of IRIC in 2008 for non-conformist opinions on constitutional reform. 

WHAT IF?

What if Biya were not president of Cameroon  in 2012? Not by losing elections but because he chooses not to run for office in 2011. For the first time since 1992 President Biya, although the statutory presidential candidate for CPDM (since he is party leader) is yet to announce his candidacy for October 2011 elections. At first this may look normal till you realize that the usual suspects on the opposition bench are also delaying presidential campaign kick-off. Could they be privy to “hidden” information? Or maybe they want to identify whom they are running against in the CPDM.

What if by modifying constitutional limitation of presidential mandates in 2008, Biya actually pulled the limelight on himself so that he could foist a power transition with a candidate of his choice under the radar?

What if recent political options adopted by Biya are geared at protecting his candidate. Take the case for “Operation Epervier”. The move to fight against corruption by intimidation and public disgrace, overflows with political strategy. The question has never been whether the accused and arrested are guilty or not, but whether they have political ambition. When corruption is erected as a form of control, all those who flirt with the system leave open a flank through which they can be brought down. The kind of corruption that grips Cameroon is not moral but systemic. There exists no means of working in a corrupt regime yet claim not to be corrupt. If we agree, that Mebara, Abah Abah, Siyam Siewe, Etondo Ekotto, Fornjindam, Nguini Effa, Michel Fotso etc may be corrupt to an extent, yet do have vested political ambitions, then we need to examine whether their ambitions threaten Biya. Obviously, Biya is not threatened by them in any way. Even popularity ceased to be a threat for Biya in 1992. The ease with which president Biya rounds these men off to jail is proof. If they don’t threaten Biya, then they threaten someone else. In which case, the political victims of “Operation Epervier” threaten whomever Biya wants to choose as replacement?  Biya may be clearing hurdles for his candidate.

What if Biya’s renewd acquaintance with Fru Ndi is not coincidental? Although they have met six times in as many months, Biya has politically neutralized Fru Ndi. Worse still he makes the SDF Chairman look like a village chief who rules, but has no power. What is the political opportunity of meeting Fru Ndi regularly? Fru Ndi may yet be a thorn to the side of Biya’s candidate. In which case, befriending Fru Ndi also follows the same logic of facilitating the path for someone else.

What if Biya voiced this intention not to be president beyond 2011 to at least one person. If this information leaks (it’s often so in Cameroon) then there is a clear justification for the circus-like “The People’s Call”. For the first time, choosing a CPDM presidential candidate seems to need popular adherence rather internal party regulation. Biya’s problem is “being president”, at all cost. Even with 39% of 4 million registered voters in 1992. Biya has not changed. He will settle for 15% percent of the vote on condition that rival parties have 14% and less. Where does the idea that citizens within and out of the CPDM want Biya to be candidate? “The People’s Call” is evocative of orphaned children looking for a lost parent in a war zone.

What if Biya’s choice is Rene Sadi, Marafa, Laurent Esso, Ahmadou Ali, Cavaye, Ayang Luc, Mebe Ngo etc.? They all meet the criterion that makes me think Mebara, Abah Abah, Siyam Siewe, Etondo Ekotto, Fornjindam, Nguini Effa, Michel Fotso, Ondo Ndong and the rest are potential rivals. Biya could even choose a non-CPDM stalwart, reinforcing the idea why he needs to silence all opposition from within his party.

What if this election were postponed in 2011? With the present state of affairs, it is plausible.