Missed Opportunities

“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason…” Cicero 58BC

32 years ago the Iranian revolution scored a massive success. The Shah was exiled, the military was decimated and Islamist fundamentalism occupied the ensuing void. Few may agree, but in many ways, the Iranian revolution was the first successful people revolution of the 20^th Century. Contemporary analysis of the Iranian Revolution is clouded by what or who replaced the Shah, but true to form and substance, there is a straight line running from Iran, through Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. What made these revolutions work?

Ingredients

On the political level, is an unpopular oligarchy run by an elite who believe or make-believe that power change will cause a civil war. The only form of power change they envisage is by death of the potentate or monarchic handover. Such regimes are propped up by western democracies as a means to stabilize the price of energy resources or to curb the never-proven rise of Islamic extremism. Contrary to common opinion these regimes have very weak and divided armies. The reason being the massive dependence on elite forces at the expense of the national army. In Libya the army defects to the streets because they play second fiddle to Kaddafi’s elite unit. That same situation plays out between BIR and Army in Cameroon. Demographically, these states have massive youthful disenfranchised populations (up to 70% between the ages of 18 and 40). Add generalized unemployment to this mix and it represents up 49million in Egypt, 7million in Tunisia, 4million in Libya and 14million in Cameroon. The ingredients are right, the cooks are ready but the fire must go under the pot for the meal to be served.

Cart before the Horse

The most difficult thing to find is a pretext. The difficulty does not rise from lack of opportunity but from the ability to recognize a spontaneous pretext and reaction time between that recognition and the mass motion needed to kick start a revolt. In Iran it was the death by fire of 400 people at a theatre in Abadan as it was with the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia.

Last week, some strike attempts were witnessed in Cameroon. While they proved mettle of Kah Wallah and a handful against a mechanized repressive police, it did little to tickle the appreciation of the most optimistic closet revolutionary. Laudable efforts don’t always guarantee satisfactory results. The political agenda overshadowed revulsion for Biya et al.

This week, a ready-made pretext shows up. True to form, it is spontaneous. Nobody, except the Minister of Finance, could predict or warn against the looming bankruptcy of the fastest growing micro-finance institution in Cameroon; Cofinest (Compagnie Financiere de l’Estuaire). The social extent of this development can be gauged from the 850,000 savings accounts run by Cofinest. On the street level, this translates to 85, ooo people per region in Cameroon. Beyond the numbers, Cofinest touches the soul of Cameroon - football. Originally, Cofinest was a common initiative group created by supporters of Union Douala. From 1996 it became a micro-finance institution with 508 shareholders and up to 850,000 accounts by December 2010.

There is a huge difference between political analysis, agendas and street survival. When a political agenda precedes a revolt, it is called a coup d’etat. For a revolution to take root, political agendas may only recuperate rather than lead a people’s power revolution.