Lebanon-Sense

The Lebanese are not genetically programmed to be victims of war.

Far from that, the most war-torn country of the Middle-East is the playground for intrigues that stretch far beyond its national identity.

The Israeli onslaught on Lebanon, which will definitely get to the gates of Beirut is not the first. But what explains that a country is literally being invaded for the second time in 2 decades and even the UN seems to be giving a head-nod? Of what interest is it to Israel to destroy Lebanon, when they could have dislodged Hezbollah without strafe-bombing vast areas of Lebanon? Is it not in Israel's interest to have a democratically elected leadership next door? Definitely yes!

In attacking Lebanon, Israel is playing two extreme cards. Firstly, even unprovoked, the Israelis always have to prove the military deterrent, in case someone forgets. This time they were provoked, and in the Israeli mind it is justified. Consider this statement by Ben Gurion to Ariel Sharon after the widely condemned Qibya Operation in the fall of 1953, in which 69 Palestinian civilians, half of which were women and children, were killed by Sharon's troops in a reprisal attack on their West Bank village. In the documentary "Israel and the Arabs: 50 Year War" Ariel Sharon recalls what happened after the raid, which was heavily condemned by many countries in the West, including the U.S.

"I was summoned to see Ben-Gurion. It was the first time I met him, and right from the start Ben-Gurion said to me:

-"Let me first tell you one thing: it doesn't matter what the world says about Israel, it doesn't matter what they say about us anywhere else. The only thing that matters is that we can exist here on the land of our forefathers. And unless we show the Arabs that there is a high price to pay for murdering Jews, we won't survive."

This is how the Israeli mind works. Israeli survival problems and security guarantees are threatened by extreme levels of poverty in surrounding Arabic/Islamic states. Democracy, in the Middle-East is an exception. So Israel is not only a religious and spiritual enemy, it is also a political and economic one too. This means that, the Israelis have every interest in having a budding democracy, Lebanon-style next door. But Lebanon is very slow in change.

It took the Rafik Hariri assassination to kick-start the Cedar Revolution which sent Syrians out of Lebanon. The Israelis are now gambling on getting Hezbollah out of South Lebanon (North of Israel) if the Lebanese realise that their peace has been jeopardised by a Irano-Syrian backed terror organisation. Whether Lebanese loathe Israel or not is another problem. Israeli attacks directly play in the favor of salient democratic forces in Lebanon.

But between the statements of PM Fouad Siniora and the man who has lost eight family members, the is a gaping abyss. Cedar Revolution (Take II) is coming soon. The Lebanese nomenklatura will be ejected, Hezbollah will run amock, and Lebanon will finally have its peace. Or the reverse the Israelis will fight the Syrians and Iranians until the last Lebanese is dead.